Fantasy Baseball for Smart People: How to Use Math and Psychology to Win DFS

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“Jonathan uses the latest data from daily fantasy sports, and beyond, to provide unique insights and actionable tips for every type of player. This book is completely fresh and maybe his best. It’s Moneyball for DFS.”

– CSURAM88, DraftKings $1MM Champion


There’s been a shift in the DFS industry; more than ever, top players are utilizing game theory, psychology, and advanced modeling to predict player performance and ownership in order to find an edge.

In Fantasy Baseball for Smart People: How to Use Math and Psychology to Win at DFS, you’ll have access to all of the latest daily fantasy baseball data—performance analytics, ownership percentages, and more—as well as simple ways to implement the numbers and exploit public biases to make money.

You’ll learn how to:

  • Predict ownership (with brand new ownership percentages)
  • Use new advanced batted ball data to find a huge untapped edge
  • Exploit Vegas lines
  • Benefit from others’ mistakes

How to Use Math and Psychology to Win at DFS is your guide to competing with daily fantasy baseball’s elite.



1 Intro (and My DFS Strategy)

An overview of my approach to daily fantasy sports and how to get the most from this book

  • How to be contrarian in DFS tournaments
  • Why randomness is your best friend
  • Using a barbell-based approach to lineup construction
  • Specific ways to create daily MLB lineups that benefit from randomness


2 Psyched Out: How to Overcome Biases in DFS

A rundown of various psychological biases that affect daily fantasy baseball players, including how you can overcome and exploit them

  • How to overcome your own biases
  • Why building models is so valuable
  • How to create high-leverage lineups that exploit others’ biases
  • Actionable tips for thinking differently about building lineups


3 Going Deep: The Latest DFS Ownership and Value Data for Batters

All-new data—including advanced batted ball metrics and the latest ownership stats—to help you select the best batters and stacks

  • Which stats predict batter value and ownership
  • How to leverage the latest batted ball data for a massive edge
  • When to use batters low in the batting order
  • How to pick which teams to stack


4 Throwing Heat: The Latest DFS Ownership and Value Data for Pitchers

A mirror image of Chapter 3, but for pitchers

  • Which stats predict pitcher value and ownership
  • Using cutting-edge pitch data to improve pitcher selection
  • How to really use the Vegas lines
  • Leveraging differences between perceived and actual recent performance


5 Winning DFS Tournaments: Which Strategies Actually Work

The newest lineup data from FantasyLabs showing the percentile ranks of certain types of lineups—how often they finish in the top 1%, top 5%, and top 20% of DFS tournaments

  • When to use chalk batters
  • The most underrated ballpark to stack
  • How to find and exploit the biggest GPP inefficiencies
  • The one player type you need to add to your MLB lineups


6 Bonus: Sample Analysis from FantasyLabs

Additional content to prepare you for this season on DraftKings and FanDuel

  • When to use knuckleball pitchers
  • Red Sox Team Preview
  • Why batted ball distance matters
  • How to find under-the-radar, cheap pitchers


Postface (with Glossary and Reading List)