I’m excited to publish the newest addition to the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series – The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS. The book is currently available on Amazon (e-book), right here as a PDF, and in paperback.
I’m pumped about this book because it’s really the first of mine to take an advanced look at what predicts daily fantasy football ownership on FanDuel and DraftKings. We’re going to have a lot of cool ownership data at FantasyLabs this year, and I used the free Trends tool over there for literally 100% of the research.
The daily fantasy sports landscape is changing. Predicting player performance is only half the battle; in tournaments, top DFS players are exploiting weaknesses in public psychology to profit big. This requires a fundamental understanding of what drives public opinion—what motivates us to make decisions and where we go wrong—and the ability to accurately forecast how it all affects player ownership in DFS leagues.
The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS takes a two-pronged approach to turning you into a better daily fantasy football player. In the first section, you’ll learn how various cognitive biases can shape your beliefs. Why do DFS players overvalue recent performance, overestimate their ability to make accurate predictions, and deal so poorly with risk and uncertainty? More important, how can you benefit from their mistakes?
The second section takes a data-driven look at both daily fantasy football tournament ownership and value. Which metrics predict not only which players perform well, but which ones will be popular in tournaments? How much do the Vegas lines matter, when should you value recent production, and how can you find both undervalued and under-owned players at each position? You’ll learn specific instructions on how to exploit inefficiencies in others’ lineups to give you a leg up on the field.
Using historical data to see what actually predicts daily fantasy football value and ownership, The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS will equip you with the tools you need to leverage weaknesses in the way other players think and act into a major competitive advantage.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A walkthrough of my approach to DFS, why psychology and understanding the way others think is critical to evolving in daily fantasy football, a preview of what’s to come later in the book, and a few poor attempts at humor
Part I: Using Psychology to Win in Daily Fantasy Football
In-depth analysis of dozens of cognitive biases, ways to overcome them, and how to exploit them to gain an advantage in tournaments
- Why the biggest edge comes when you embrace uncertainty
- How to prepare during the week to limit the negative impact of cognitive biases
- The optimal process to be a true contrarian DFS player
- How to properly analyze lineups and adjust your strategy accordingly
Part II: How to Predict Value and Ownership
A data-driven look at what predicts value, ownership, and consistency in daily fantasy football
- A breakdown of every position—QB, RB, WR, TE, D, and K—including all-new ownership data
- How well the Vegas lines “work” for each position
- When to fade popular players
- How to use public betting tendencies to predict ownership
- Which stats are underrated by the crowd
- How much to emphasize matchup strength for each position
Part III: The Ultimate List of Daily Fantasy Heuristics + My Favorite Books
A list of 68 heuristics summing up the data and advice provided in the prior two sections
- The most actionable strategies for daily fantasy football
- The take-home data points to help you dominate this season
- A supplementary reading list
I hate goodbyes.